It was put on a firm mathematical basis by Newton, more than 300 years ago, and we still use his theory of gravity to predict the motion of almost all celestial bodies. So astronomy was the first science to be developed. These regularities were most obvious, in the motion of the heavenly bodies across the sky. Gradually however, people must have noticed certain regularities in the behaviour of nature. They offer to do certain things, if only they can get an Agrade for a course, or pass their driving test. Many people still partially subscribe to this belief, and try to make a pact with fortune. There was no way to predict what they would do, and the only hope was to win favour by gifts or actions. Primitive people attributed such natural phenomena, to a pantheon of gods and goddesses, who behaved in a capricious and whimsical way. Disasters such as floods or diseases must have seemed to happen without warning, or apparent reason. In ancient times, the world must have seemed pretty arbitrary. ![]() This lecture is about whether we can predict the future, or whether it is arbitrary and random.
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